Trump Eyes North Korea Pivot as He Hosts South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung at White House
President Donald Trump is eyeing a North Korea pivot as he hosts South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung at the White House, with the meeting offering a chance to revive stalled diplomacy amid escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula and Pyongyang’s deepened ties with Russia, as experts warn of Kim Jong Un’s emboldened stance following recent military escalations.
High-Stakes Summit Amid Shifting Geopolitics
President Donald Trump is set to welcome South Korean President Lee Jae Myung to the White House on Monday, 25 August 2025, in a summit that could signal a renewed push for dialogue with North Korea. The talks come as Trump seeks to rebound from an inconclusive summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on 15 August, where no concrete deal was reached on ending the war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest Trump, known for his “appetite for big news,” may leverage this meeting to pivot towards Asia, capitalising on Lee’s advocacy for outreach to the North despite Pyongyang’s recent provocations.
Victor Cha, a former top Asia advisor to President George W. Bush and current Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that the Alaska summit’s shortcomings could heighten Trump’s interest in a successful outcome with South Korea. “Having the Alaska summit not go as well as he wanted may make the president much more interested in seeing this meeting with South Korea come off very well,” Cha said. The agenda is expected to cover troop costs, trade tariffs, and strategies to counter China’s influence, but North Korea looms large as a potential focal point.
Trump’s first term featured unprecedented personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, including three historic meetings where he claimed they “fell in love.” However, no denuclearisation deal was secured, and relations soured. Now, with Trump back in office after his 2024 election victory, experts believe he may seek to rekindle that engagement. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, sworn in on 25 January 2025, has joined Trump in referring to North Korea as a “nuclear power,” breaking precedent but not recognising its arsenal’s legitimacy.
Lee’s Cautious Approach and Domestic Challenges
Lee Jae Myung, a former labour lawyer from the Democratic Party, assumed office on 3 June 2025, following the impeachment and removal of conservative predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol in April 2025 over a short-lived martial law declaration in December 2024. Yoon’s ousting, upheld unanimously by South Korea’s Constitutional Court, stemmed from his brief imposition of martial law amid domestic unrest, which was seen as a political miscalculation and legal overreach.
Lee’s election victory marked a shift to the left, but his administration has emphasised continuity in foreign policy. Before heading to Washington, Lee visited Japan on 23 August, meeting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to reaffirm trilateral cooperation with the US despite historical tensions over Japan’s colonial rule. The summit yielded agreements on defence, economic security, and AI, underscoring Lee’s pragmatic stance.
On North Korea, Lee advocates a three-step denuclearisation process: freezing, reducing, and dismantling Pyongyang’s programme. Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center’s Korea programme, believes this could resonate with Trump. “Lee’s stance likely will resonate with President Trump, who is keen to engage North Korea. From the South Korean government’s point of view, getting the Trump administration’s buy-in on its North Korea policy would be a big diplomatic win,” she said.
However, experts doubt North Korea’s receptiveness, given its hardened position. Pyongyang has rebuffed similar offers from former US President Joe Biden and views denuclearisation as non-negotiable.
North Korea’s Emboldened Stance and Regional Tensions
Kim Jong Un’s regime appears more confident than during Trump’s first term, bolstered by its alliance with Russia. Western and South Korean intelligence estimate North Korea has supplied over 10,000 troops and weapons to support Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine since late 2024, including artillery shells and missiles. In return, Russia has provided advanced technology and economic aid, easing UN sanctions’ impact.
“If there is one reason why North Korea’s not interested in any of these dialogues with the South Koreans and the Americans, it’s because of all they’re getting from Russia,” Cha explained. This partnership has emboldened Pyongyang, which test-fired two new air defence missiles on 23 August, according to state media. Earlier that week, South Korean troops fired warning shots at North Korean soldiers who briefly crossed the Demilitarised Zone, heightening border tensions.
North Korea’s nuclear ambitions remain firm, especially after US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025, which targeted facilities like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. A US intelligence assessment later revealed the strikes destroyed only one of three key sites, potentially inspiring Pyongyang to fortify its programme.
Troop Commitments and Alliance Dynamics
The summit will also address the US military presence in South Korea, where 28,500 troops are stationed. Both Trump and Lee have previously questioned the commitment’s cost, with Trump demanding higher contributions from allies during his first term. A recent deal on tariffs, secured amid Lee’s transition, mirrors agreements with other US partners, but troop funding could resurface.
Lee’s left-leaning background paradoxically aligns with Trump’s “America First” approach on some issues, potentially fostering common ground. However, Lee’s reaffirmation of joint US-South Korea military exercises, which anger the North, signals a balanced stance.
Geopolitical Ramifications and Expert Views
The meeting occurs against a backdrop of regional flux, including China’s growing assertiveness and the US-Israel strikes on Iran. South Korea: A successful summit could sideline Seoul from US-North Korea talks, a risk Lee aims to mitigate.
As Trump seeks foreign policy wins, this engagement could revive his “personal diplomacy” style. Yet, with North Korea’s leverage from Russia, breakthroughs may prove elusive. “It has no reason to be receptive to such a proposition given that the geopolitical situation is working in its favour,” Rachel Minyoung Lee warned.The outcome could shape Korean peninsula dynamics, influencing denuclearisation efforts and alliance stability. With tensions spiking, including recent border incursions, the world watches as Trump and Lee navigate this complex landscape.
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