Russian President Vladimir Putin
By Thabo Mosia
On December 22, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico at the Kremlin. This meeting, notable for its rarity among European Union leaders since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, centered on the imminent expiration of the gas transit agreement through Ukraine—a critical conduit for Russian natural gas supplies to Europe. 
Background on the Gas Transit Agreement
The existing gas transit contract, established in 2019, permits Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom to transport natural gas through Ukraine’s extensive pipeline network to European consumers. This agreement is set to expire on December 31, 2024. Ukraine has consistently indicated its unwillingness to renew the contract, a stance reaffirmed by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, who stated, “Ukraine’s agreement with Russia on gas transit comes to an end on 1st January 2025 and will not be extended.” 
Slovakia’s Energy Concerns
Slovakia is heavily reliant on Russian gas delivered through Ukraine, with approximately 69% of its gas imports sourced from Russia in 2023.  Prime Minister Fico has expressed concerns over the potential cessation of this transit route, emphasizing that securing continued eastern supplies is essential to avoid incurring an additional €220 million in transit expenses from alternative sources. 
European Energy Security Implications
The termination of the gas transit agreement poses significant challenges for European countries dependent on this route. Austria, for instance, imported 88% of its gas from Russia between January and July 2024, up from 60% in 2023, highlighting a growing dependence on Russian energy.  The European Union has been striving to reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels, aiming for a complete phase-out by 2027. However, the abrupt end of the transit deal could lead to energy shortages and increased prices, particularly during the winter months. 
Putin’s Position
President Putin has acknowledged the challenges posed by the expiration of the transit agreement but remains resolute. He stated, “There will no longer be this contract. That much is clear. We will get through it, and Gazprom will get through it as well.”  This assertion underscores Russia’s readiness to adapt to the changing energy landscape, despite the potential financial and logistical hurdles.
Potential Alternatives and Future Outlook
In anticipation of the contract’s expiration, European countries have been exploring alternative gas supply routes and sources. For example, Hungary has been receiving Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline, which runs through Turkey, Bulgaria, and Serbia, thereby bypassing Ukraine. Slovakia and Austria, however, face more significant challenges due to their landlocked positions and lack of direct access to LNG terminals. 
The European Commission has indicated that the end of the Ukraine transit deal may not have a significant impact on European gas prices, citing the availability of alternative supplies. Nonetheless, concerns persist among EU diplomats about potential disruptions, especially if Russia targets pipeline infrastructure, which could destabilize Ukraine’s gas system.
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