“Remove Zuma, and It Collapses”
By Thabo Mosia
Controversial political analyst Prince Mashele recently engaged in a conversation on Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh’s podcast “SMWX,” which aired on 14 January 2025. Mashele made bold predictions and shared incisive views on South Africa’s political landscape, asserting that the recently formed MK Party’s stability heavily relies on its founding figure, former President Jacob Zuma.
Mashele argued that without Zuma’s unifying presence, the MK Party might not sustain its current momentum. “Remove Zuma, and it collapses,” he stated, sparking a conversation about the future of South African politics dominated by coalition governments and shifting electoral allegiances.
The State of the ANC: A Decline Foretold
Mashele’s observations carry weight, given his earlier predictions about the African National Congress’s (ANC) decline. In collaboration with Mzukisi Qobo, Mashele authored a book in 2012 that foresaw the ANC’s significant electoral fall. At the time, their projections were considered heretical. However, the events leading to and following the 2024 elections vindicated their analysis, as the ANC’s support dipped below pivotal thresholds, marking an era of coalition governance.
According to Mashele, the ANC’s downfall was due to three central issues: corruption, internal factionalism, and incompetence. He compared this decline to the collapse of historical empires, emphasizing that once an empire falls, it is improbable for it to regain its former stature.
Coalition Governments: The New Normal
Amidst this political reshuffling, Mashele had predicted the formation of a coalition government post-2024 elections. By joining forces with the Democratic Alliance (DA), the ANC formed a pragmatic, albeit controversial, government. Mashele remarked that this arrangement, while not ideal, was the most viable option under the circumstances.
The partnership, which some interpret as a government of national unity, realistically represents a coalition to stabilize South Africa during its transition away from ANC-dominant politics. Mashele contends that such governments typically do not lead to significant progress due to their intrinsic compromises, noting, “This coalition government will not do more; it’s not possible.”
The Democratic Alliance: A Question of Representation
Mashele did not shy away from critiquing the DA, branding it a party of “white South Africans.” Despite the DA’s attempts to paint itself as a diverse entity, Mashele argued that its leadership and power dynamics remained primarily in the hands of white South Africans. He challenged the DA to genuinely open up and include credible black leadership to substantiate its claims of diversity.
Economic Implications and Future Prospects
Mashele cautioned that the coalition arrangement with the DA was the best-suited approach to prevent economic instability. A government including the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or MK Party would have likely spooked investors, as these parties have contentious histories tied to corruption and radical policies.
He further predicted that investor confidence would remain fragile until a force with substantial legitimacy takes control and directs South Africa’s economic policies, thus overcoming the developmental backlogs caused by decades of ANC mismanagement.
MK Party and the Role of Jacob Zuma
The formation of the MK Party, led by Jacob Zuma, attracted significant attention as it garnered around 14% of the electoral vote, positioning it as a noteworthy player in South African politics. However, Mashele emphasized Jacob Zuma’s critical role as the party’s cohesive force. In his absence, Mashele suggested, the party could disintegrate due to its lack of a coherent ideology and diverse mix of opportunistic individuals.
Historical parallels are drawn with the political dynamics following the fall of the Qing Dynasty in China, suggesting that current players like the MK Party may not necessarily lead the country into a stable future.
The EFF: A Declining Force?
In addressing the EFF, Mashele offered a critical view, asserting that despite its prior trajectory, the party was on a decline. He attributed this to internal leadership conflicts and strategic missteps that deviated from effective political strategy, as observed in their recent challenges.
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