Moses Kau
Bloemfontein – Free State-based international relations and protocol expert Moses Kau has raised a red flag over a new US bill that could slap sanctions on African National Congress (ANC) leaders and boot South Africa out of the vital African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), warning that the move spells trouble for jobs, health aid, and everyday families already squeezed by fresh tariffs.
Kau, a seasoned voice in global affairs with deep ties to the Free State government through his role as CEO of K Protocol and head of intergovernmental relations in the Office of the Premier, dropped the bombshell in a stark online post on September 15, 2025. “While you were not looking!” he began, spotlighting the “United States – South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act” – the second such proposal this year from US lawmakers. If it sails through Congress and lands on President Donald Trump’s desk, Kau says it will “kick out” South Africa from AGOA, the 2000 law that lets sub-Saharan nations ship goods duty-free to the US. Remember how Trump’s August 8, 2025, slap of 30% tariffs on South African exports already gutted sectors like farming and car-making? This bill cranks up the heat, potentially costing tens of thousands more jobs and slashing billions in trade.
Kau isn’t mincing words about the human cost. “True, the importance of the United States (politically, economically, socially and otherwise) to us as South Africa, cannot be taken lightly or for granted,” he wrote, laying out how the US pumps life into the Rainbow Nation. As South Africa’s second-biggest trading buddy after China, America soaked up $3.7 billion in South African exports last year alone through AGOA perks – think citrus fruits, wine, and car parts that keep factories humming. Toss in $14.7 billion in foreign direct investment for 2024, over 600 US firms creating 148,000 direct and indirect jobs, and 350,000 Yankee tourists dropping precious dollars into hotels and tours. Then there’s the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), footing 17% of the national health bill to fight HIV with drugs, care, and prevention that save lives daily. The US Agency for International Development (USAID) chips in too, bolstering fights against TB, hunger, and dodgy governance. “So, brace yourselves,” Kau urged, painting a picture of a nation on the brink.
The Bill’s Double Punch: Sanctions on ANC Brass and AGOA Axe
This isn’t the first rodeo. The earlier version, H.R. 2633 from April 3, 2025, cooked up by Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson, breezed through the House Foreign Affairs Committee on July 23 with a 34-16 vote, but still needs full House and Senate nods before Trump inks it. That one zeroed in on punishing ANC top dogs – likely the Top 7 like President Cyril Ramaphosa and Treasurer-General Paul Mashatile – plus firebrands like Economic Freedom Fighters boss Julius Malema for “undermining US interests.” Kau reckons it’ll snag them for stuff like South Africa’s ICJ case against Israel over Gaza, joint army drills with Russia amid its Ukraine scrap, and cozy cyber and trade hugs with Beijing and Moscow.
The fresh Senate bill, tabled September 15, mirrors the blueprint but amps up the AGOA threat. It demands a “full strategic review” of US-South Africa ties, forcing Trump to certify if the ANC’s antics – from naming streets after Palestinian militants to stonewalling probes on the Lady R Russian arms ship saga – warrant the boot. If passed, it’ll spit out a secret list of sanction-worthy ANC-linked folks: visa bans, frozen assets, and public shaming that could drag in families too. Kau flags how the bill slams ongoing rot like Eskom blackouts from graft, Transnet rail wrecks choking mines, and 2023-2024 cholera waves killing hundreds due to filthy water – all pinned on ANC neglect.
Critics in Congress, including black sponsors to dodge racism cries, roast Pretoria for backing Hamas post-October 7, 2023, staying mum on Uyghur horrors in China or Sudan’s bloodbath, and pushing BRICS de-dollar dreams that rattle Wall Street. “This is not anti–South Africa — it is pro-accountability,” one hearing witness barked, as captured in viral clips. The fallout? AGOA’s duty-free golden goose – renewed yearly till its 2025 sunset – could vanish, hitting exports hard. Last year’s $3.7 billion windfall? Poof. One in 45 South African homes leans on US-bound goods for bread and butter, per trade trackers.
Tariffs Bite First: 30% Wall Crushes Exports, Jobs Vanish Overnight
Trump’s not waiting for bills – he’s already swinging. On July 31, 2025, he signed an order hiking “reciprocal” tariffs to 30% on South African imports from August 7, flipping the bird at what he calls Pretoria’s unfair 7.5% blanket duties. It nuked AGOA’s edge for ag giants like avocados and macadamias, plus auto bits from BMW and Ford plants. By mid-August, exporters screamed of $500 million losses, with 25,000 jobs in the crosshairs – farms shuttering in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape textile mills like Lesotho’s copying factories folding flat.
South Africa’s hit back, offering a “revised trade deal” on August 12 via Trade Minister Parks Tau, begging exemptions for key sectors. But Trump’s team, led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, dug in, tying relief to ditching BRICS flirtations and BEE rules that spook investors. The DA’s John Steenhuisen warned in Parliament that without a U-turn, tariffs stick like glue. Economists crunch the numbers: a 2% GDP dip, rand wobbles at R19 to the dollar, and inflation spiking to 6.5% by Christmas. Rural folks feel it worst – truckers idle, families skipping meds for mealie meal.
Kau’s Wake-Up: ANC’s Foreign Flubs Fuel the Fire
Kau, who’s slammed Ramaphosa’s May 2025 White House flop for failing to charm Trump or lock in aid pledges, sees the ANC’s global tango as self-sabotage. “That (earlier) Bill easily passed and was approved by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, though, in order for it to become an Act, it still has to pass through the House of Representative, and later the Senate before President Trump can sign it into law,” he noted. He assumes Malema’s EFF gets lumped in for anti-West rants, widening the net.
Experts echo Kau: the bill’s 14 gripes – from training Chinese pilots on old NATO gear to ignoring Rohingya cries – paint Pretoria as a rogue. AfriForum cheered the July advance as “justice for ANC excesses,” while Wits prof John Stremlau frets over $8.1 billion in US aid since 2003 going down the drain. PEPFAR’s ARV lifeline? At risk. USAID’s TB and food security boosts? Teetering. Even tourism could tank if visas tighten.
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