Mashele Predicts Coalitions After 2029 as ANC Collapses
Prince Mashele has predicted that the ANC will collapse to below 20% by 2029, leading to continued coalitions as no party secures a majority, in a hard-hitting Q&A session where he warned South Africa stands at a historic “realignment moment.”
The political commentator urged elites to step into politics to replace “scoundrels” in parliament, stressing leadership, unity, and meritocracy as key to rescuing the country from collapse. He dismissed Jacob Zuma’s MK party as a family rent-collection scheme destined to implode, and argued black and white South Africans are ready to co-govern. Mashele’s analysis, delivered at BNIC#2 in Hermanus, paints a picture of seismic shifts in South African politics, with the ANC’s decline creating opportunities for new alignments but risking further instability if not managed well.
ANC’s Dramatic Decline: Below 20% by 2029
Mashele forecasted the ANC’s vote share dropping below 20% in the 2029 elections, extrapolating from Cyril Ramaphosa’s drop from 57% in 2019 to 40% in 2024. “Let’s assume that they will lose by the same margin. Where does that take you from 40%? 20%,” he said, predicting voters—both black and white—will punish the party for failures. “South Africans are heartful… they are angry. What I’m hearing from both blacks and whites is that they wish 2029 was here to teach the ANC a lesson.”
He highlighted key provinces: KwaZulu-Natal governed by MK with a majority if Zuma is alive, Gauteng’s middle class punishing the ANC, and Mpumalanga’s decline accelerating due to its Zulu component. This would lead to a coalition government with the DA around 24%, MK crossing 20%, and EFF stagnating—a “very slim majority” dependent on the chaotic 2027 ANC conference.
MK Party: Family Scheme Set to Implode
Mashele was scathing on uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), calling it a “family affair” run by Zuma’s children as a “money collection mechanism.” He revealed parliamentarians contribute R10,000 monthly to a Zuma-controlled account. “There’s no party called MK in South Africa… It’s chaos,” he said, citing recent purges like Floyd Shivambu and Jimmy Manyi. “The fights have begun now… The day Zuma collapses—and Zuma will collapse very soon—the fights you are going to witness there, you have not seen something like that.”
He predicted MK hovering around 14% in 2026 locals, suffering the EFF’s stigma of “scoundrel” local leaders, limiting direct election success.
Shivambu’s New Party: Just a Salary Project
On Floyd Shivambu’s Afrika Mayibuye Movement, Mashele dismissed it as “just a salary project” for Shivambu to earn R1.2 million annually plus perks after leaving EFF and MK. “That whole thing is about one man who has lost positions… and he wants to earn a salary. Full stop,” he said, comparing it to Mmusi Maimane’s Bosa—existing for leaders’ gain without real impact.
Leadership Vacuum: Elites Must Replace Scoundrels
Mashele urged elites to enter politics, warning leaving it to “scoundrels” leads to collapse. He stressed meritocracy: “We need to change this culture… make it very difficult for scoundrels to go into parliament.” Citing Singapore and China as models where “scoundrels have no place,” he called for behind-the-scenes elite talks like pre-1994 negotiations.
He endorsed Helen Zille for Johannesburg mayor, noting black elites secretly support her: “There is no black person I’ve spoken to in Johannesburg who said… ‘you are crazy’… Privately they say ‘we will vote for her secretly.’” This signals readiness for black-white co-governance.
ANC Conferences: Worse Than Auctions
Mashele agreed ANC conferences are “auctions” but called it an understatement: “The guy with the biggest money bag gets it… from branch all the way to Cyril Ramaphosa.” He revealed Ramaphosa’s funding from white business: “That money bag was filled by white business people… I told them this chap is incompetent—he’s useless—but they didn’t listen.”
Hope for South Africa: Beauty, Talent, and Open-Mindedness
Despite gloom, Mashele remains hopeful: South Africa’s beauty, high middle-class standards, and resources offer recovery potential. “If we sort out our leadership nonsense… this country can take off in five years,” he said. Elites’ investments in private infrastructure show commitment.
If things worsen, he predicts a Nigeria-like outcome—millionaires in enclaves amid poverty—but believes talent will prevail. ANC failures have created “open-mindedness” for experimentation.
PA’s Limited Growth: Capped at Under 8%
Mashele predicted the Patriotic Alliance won’t grow nationally for 15-20 years, capping under 8%, as Gayton McKenzie shifts from “coloured party” to broader appeals but fails to gain traction.
Mashele’s insights warn of turbulent times but offer hope through elite intervention and realignment. As 2029 approaches, his predictions could shape South Africa’s political future.
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