By Thabo Mosia
The recent by-elections held on 28 August 2024 have delivered surprising results, particularly with Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto Wesizwe Party (MK Party) securing a second councillor, this time in the North West province. This marks the party’s first councillor beyond its stronghold in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), and the victory has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, especially for the ANC and EFF.
MK Party’s Remarkable Victory in Rustenburg
The most significant result of the by-elections came from Ward 45 (Photsaneng Marikana) in Rustenburg, North West. In what was expected to be a closely contested battle, the MK Party secured an impressive 43% of the vote, outpacing the ANC, which garnered 33%, and the EFF, which finished with 24%.
The turnout in Rustenburg was 39%, an increase from the previous poll, which saw a 35% turnout. This victory is especially noteworthy as it took place in a marginal ANC ward, signaling the growing influence of the MK Party beyond its traditional base in KZN. The MK Party’s strong performance in the village of Thekwane was pivotal in clinching this victory.
This win marks the MK Party’s first councillor in the North West province, expanding their representation beyond KZN, where they had previously won their first councillor seat. The party’s ability to secure this victory in a province traditionally dominated by the ANC and EFF is a significant achievement.
ANC Holds Firm in Mpumalanga
In contrast to the MK Party’s breakthrough in North West, the ANC managed to hold onto Ward 17 (Mangweni) in Nkomazi, Ehlanzeni, Mpumalanga. The ANC secured 81% of the vote, a slight decrease from the 87% it achieved in the proportional representation (PR) vote. The MK Party, though not winning, made a notable impact by securing 16% of the vote, while the EFF garnered just 3%.
The by-election in Ward 17 was held due to the unfortunate murder of the previous ward councillor during a home robbery. The ANC’s continued dominance in Ehlanzeni reflects its stronghold in Mpumalanga, although the MK Party’s showing is a sign of its growing presence.
Independent Candidate Stuns DA in eThekwini
In one of the most surprising outcomes of the by-elections, independent candidate Andrew Akkers shocked the DA in Ward 34 (Greenwood Park Sea Cow Lake), eThekwini. Akkers, a community activist and ratepayers’ leader, secured 43% of the vote, outperforming all other candidates.
The MK Party made a significant showing by securing 19% of the vote, outperforming the ANC, which managed 18%, and the DA, which finished with just 15%. The poll turnout in this ward was notably low at 26%, a decrease from the 42% turnout in the previous election.
Akkers’ victory is a clear indication of the discontent within the community, with many voters opting for a candidate who they believe better represents their interests. The MK Party’s second-place finish in this ward also highlights its growing appeal in urban areas, challenging the dominance of established parties like the ANC and DA.
DA Holds Strong in Gauteng and Western Cape
The DA demonstrated its resilience in Gauteng and the Western Cape by retaining key wards. In Johannesburg’s Ward 89 (Weltevreden Park Constantia Kloof), the DA secured an overwhelming 96% of the vote, a significant increase from the 69% it garnered in the previous election. The ANC and MK Party both received 2% and 1% of the vote, respectively.
Similarly, in Ward 58 (Rondebosch Kenilworth), Cape Town, the DA maintained its dominance with 98% of the vote, up from 84% in the previous election. The ANC managed just 1%, while the MK Party received less than 1%.
These results indicate the DA’s stronghold in its traditional bases, particularly in urban areas of Gauteng and the Western Cape, where it continues to perform exceptionally well despite the challenges posed by independent candidates and smaller parties.
ANC Holds Ward in Moretele, North West
In Ward 26 (Mogogelo Ratjiepan) Moretele, North West, the ANC managed to retain its seat with 58% of the vote, closely matching its PR vote share of 58%. The MK Party made a strong showing with 25%, while the EFF garnered 17%.
This ward, located near the Gauteng and Limpopo borders, saw a turnout of 47%, slightly higher than the previous turnout of 46%. The MK Party’s performance in this ward, particularly its ability to outpace the EFF, is encouraging for the party as it continues to expand its influence.
DA Narrowly Wins Cederberg Ward from ANC
In another surprising outcome, the DA narrowly won Ward 2 (Citrusdal) in Cederberg, West Coast, from the ANC. The DA secured 41% of the vote, just ahead of the ANC’s 39%. The Patriotic Alliance (PA) finished third with 20%.
The DA’s victory in this ward is significant as the ANC had previously outpaced the DA in the provincial ballot in May. The turnout for this election was 46%, down from 55% in the previous election.
MK Party’s Strong Showing in Other Wards
While the MK Party did not win any additional seats, its performance in several other wards is worth noting. In Ward 10 (Eastdene Hlalamnandi) Steve Tshwete, Nkangala in Mpumalanga, the ANC retained its seat with 52% of the vote, while the MK Party finished second with 20%. The Mpumalanga Human Rights Forum (MHRF) secured 17%, and the EFF finished with 11%.
In Ward 17 (Welgevonden Estate Cloetesville), Stellenbosch, the DA won with 96% of the vote, while the MK Party received 1%. Despite the DA’s near-total dominance in this ward, the MK Party’s presence is a testament to its continued efforts to build a national presence.
In Ward 92 (Arcadia Hatfield) in Tshwane, the DA held its seat with 59% of the vote. The EFF and ANC both received 19% and 17%, respectively, while the MK Party garnered 4%. This ward had a low turnout of 12%, down from 32% in the previous election.
ANC Holds Key Wards in North West and Free State
The ANC also managed to retain several key wards in the North West and Free State provinces. In Ward 17 (Mmakau) Madibeng, Bojanala, North West, the ANC secured 74% of the vote, up from 61% in the previous election. The EFF received 26% of the vote in this ward, which is located near the Gauteng border by Ga-Rankuwa.
In Ward 7 (Tumahole Mbeki), Ngwathe in Fezile Dabi, Free State, the ANC retained its seat with 64% of the vote, an increase from its previous 56%. The African Content Movement (ACT), led by former Free State Premier Ace Magashule, secured 31%, while the EFF finished with 5%.
Implications of the By-Election Results
The results of the 28 August 2024 by-elections carry significant implications for South Africa’s political landscape. The MK Party’s victories in Rustenburg and its strong showings in other wards indicate that the party is not just a regional force but is starting to establish itself as a national player. Its success in Rustenburg, a key industrial hub, is particularly significant as it highlights the party’s ability to resonate with voters outside of its traditional base.
The ANC’s ability to retain key wards, particularly in Mpumalanga and the North West, demonstrates its continued strength in certain regions. However, the emergence of the MK Party as a formidable opponent, along with the growing influence of independent candidates like Andrew Akkers in eThekwini, suggests that the ANC will face increasing challenges in maintaining its dominance.
For the DA, the by-elections were a mixed bag. While the party managed to hold onto its strongholds in Gauteng and the Western Cape, the surprise defeat in eThekwini to an independent candidate highlights potential vulnerabilities in its support base. The DA’s ability to win a ward from the ANC in Cederberg, however, suggests that it still has the capacity to make gains in areas where it is traditionally weaker.
The EFF’s performance in these by-elections was less impressive, with the party finishing behind both the ANC and the MK Party in several wards. This could indicate that the EFF’s appeal is waning, particularly in areas where it had previously performed well.
Reactions on Social Media
The by-election results have sparked significant discussion on social media platforms, particularly on X (formerly Twitter). Many users expressed surprise at the MK Party’s strong performance, with some speculating that the party could become a major force in South African politics.
One user commented, “The MK Party is not to be underestimated. Their win in Rustenburg shows that they have the potential to challenge the ANC and EFF on a national level.”
Another user highlighted the significance of the Rustenburg victory, tweeting, “MK Party’s win in Rustenburg is a game-changer. This could be the start of something big for them.”
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