Institute of Race Relations (IRR)
By Natalie Naidoo
A new poll by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) reveals that the African National Congress (ANC) is losing ground as tensions over value-added tax (VAT) are expected to rise again next week as the Democratic Alliance (DA) goes to court. The IRR says its research shows the budget debacle has worked in favour of the DA, uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK), and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), but not for the ANC and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). As South Africans prepare for the Easter long weekend, this shift in voter perceptions about the Government of National Unity (GNU) highlights growing frustration with the ANC’s approach, raising questions about coalition dynamics and governance.
The IRR’s findings come at a pivotal moment, with the DA challenging a proposed 0.5% VAT hike in court, arguing it burdens the poor and lacks proper parliamentary scrutiny. The poll suggests that voters are rethinking who should lead the GNU, with the ANC’s dominance under fire. With Easter’s themes of renewal and reflection in the air, South Africans are calling for a government that listens and collaborates, as the nation navigates economic challenges and political uncertainty.
Shifting Perceptions of the GNU
The IRR’s poll, conducted among 604 registered voters in September and October 2024, paints a picture of changing attitudes toward the GNU, formed after the ANC lost its parliamentary majority in the May 2024 elections. “As tensions over value-added tax (VAT) are expected to rise again next week as the DA goes to court, a new poll suggests the perceptions about the African National Congress (ANC) working in a Government of National Unity have shifted,” the IRR stated. The budget debate, particularly the controversial VAT hike, has reshaped how voters view the coalition’s key players.
The ANC, which secured 40% of the vote in 2024, is now seen as less cooperative. “The institute’s Herman Pretorius explains why: ‘The ANC being seen no longer as a positive partner in the main, of the GNU but actually an arrogant, dominant partner, that seeks to position the GNU as a continuation of ANC-only governance,’” the IRR reported. This perception has dented the ANC’s standing, while boosting support for opposition parties. “The IRR says its research shows the budget debacle has worked in favour of the Democratic Alliance (DA), uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) but not so for the ANC and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP),” the institute noted.
DA Surges in Voter Support
The poll asked voters who they would support in a snap election held now. “Asked who they would vote for if a snap election had to be held now, the Institute of Race Relations says the majority support of at least 30% would go to the DA,” the IRR revealed. This is a significant jump from the DA’s 22% in the 2024 elections, reflecting its growing appeal as a stabilizing force. The DA’s opposition to the VAT hike, which it argues hurts low-income households, has resonated with voters frustrated by rising living costs.
In contrast, the ANC’s support has slipped, with the IRR suggesting it could fall below its 2024 share if current trends continue. The MK Party and EFF have also gained ground, with MK polling at 15% and the EFF at 7%, up from their election results of 14% and 9%, respectively. However, the IFP, a key GNU partner, has not seen similar gains, possibly due to its alignment with the ANC on the budget vote.
Coalition Preferences Evolve
The IRR poll also explored which parties voters want in the GNU. “It’s also changed voters’ perceptions of which parties would work best in a coalition,” the institute stated. While the DA remains the preferred partner for over 50% of respondents, there’s growing openness to including MK or the EFF. “While more voters would be inclined to support a government of national unity that includes the MK or EFF but not the DA – than six months ago – more than 50% of participants would still rather prefer the DA to be included in the coalition – rather than the two major opposition parties,” the IRR found.
This shift reflects dissatisfaction with the ANC’s handling of the GNU. “Without the sufficient consensus mechanism of the GNU kicking in to approve it, has positioned the ANC not only on the side of an unpopular rise in VAT, but also on the wrong side of collaboration in the GNU,” the IRR explained. Voters value the GNU’s promise of cooperation, but many feel the ANC is undermining it by acting unilaterally.
The VAT Hike Controversy
The proposed 0.5% VAT increase, set to take effect on 1 May 2025, has been a lightning rod for criticism. The DA, joined by the EFF and MK, opposed the fiscal framework in parliament, arguing it unfairly burdens the poor. The ANC secured the vote with support from smaller GNU parties like the IFP, Patriotic Alliance, and ActionSA, but at a cost to its public image. The IRR suggests that scrapping the hike could restore some goodwill. “The IRR says if the ANC were to drop the VAT hike, it could once again bolster its support,” the institute noted.
South Africa’s economic challenges fuel the debate. With unemployment at 32% and inflation at 5.2% in March 2025, many households struggle with rising costs. The VAT hike, though small, adds pressure on essentials like food and transport, hitting low-income families hardest. The DA’s court challenge, led by Helen Zille, seeks to interdict the increase and declare parts of the VAT Act unconstitutional, citing inadequate parliamentary oversight. The outcome, expected after Easter, could further shape GNU dynamics.
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