Friedrich Merz
By Thabo Mosia
Berlin, Germany – Friedrich Merz has led the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) to a decisive victory in the 2025 German federal election, securing around 28.5% of the vote on Sunday, 23 February 2025. The conservative bloc emerged as the strongest party, setting the stage for Merz to become Germany’s next chancellor. However, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) made history with a stunning 21% of the vote, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) slumped to 16.5% and the Greens to 11%. In a bold statement, Merz vowed to steer Europe towards “real independence” from the United States, hinting at a major shift in Germany’s foreign policy.
A Night of Triumph for Merz and the CDU/CSU
The 2025 German federal election delivered a clear mandate to the CDU/CSU, with early results showing the conservative alliance clinching 29% of the vote after more than two-thirds of ballots were counted. This marks a 5% improvement from their 2021 performance, when they secured 24.1% under Angela Merkel’s legacy leadership. Friedrich Merz, a 69-year-old political veteran who has never held a ministerial post, celebrated the win with supporters at the CDU headquarters in Berlin.
“Tonight, we celebrate, but tomorrow, the hard work begins,” Merz told a cheering crowd. His victory ends a four-year stint in opposition for the CDU/CSU, following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government late last year. The snap election, triggered by infighting among Scholz’s SPD, the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), paved the way for Merz to reclaim power in Europe’s biggest economy.
But the night wasn’t without surprises. The AfD, led by Alice Weidel, surged to 21%, doubling its 2021 result of 10.4%. This historic performance cements the far-right party as Germany’s second-largest political force, though all mainstream parties, including the CDU/CSU, have ruled out working with them due to their extremist stance.
Breaking Down the Numbers
With 212 of 299 constituencies declared by late Sunday, the provisional tally paints a vivid picture of Germany’s shifting political landscape:
• CDU/CSU: 29% (+5% from 2021)
• AfD: 21% (+11%)
• SPD: 16% (-10%)
• Greens: 11% (-4%)
• The Left: 9% (+4%)
• Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW): 5% (+5%, new party)
• FDP: 4% (-7%)The SPD, under outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suffered its worst postwar result, dropping from 25.7% in 2021 to a mere 16%. “This is a bitter defeat,” Scholz admitted in a sombre address, adding that the rise of the AfD was a troubling sign for German democracy. The Greens, once a rising star, also faltered, slipping to 11% amid voter fatigue with their environmental agenda.
Meanwhile, The Left party staged an unexpected comeback, jumping to 9% thanks to a viral TikTok campaign led by co-leader Heidi Reichinnek, who captured the youth vote. The BSW, a new left-populist outfit, narrowly hit the 5% threshold to enter parliament, while the FDP crashed out with just 4%, failing to secure seats.
Merz’s Vision: A Europe Free from U.S. Influence
Friedrich Merz wasted no time outlining his ambitions. In a post-election interview, he declared that his “absolute priority” is to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the USA.” This statement, made on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflects growing unease about U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump.
“I never thought I’d have to say this on television,” Merz said, referencing Trump’s recent push for Ukraine peace talks that excluded European leaders. “But it’s clear that at least some Americans in this administration are indifferent to Europe’s fate.”
Merz’s call for European autonomy isn’t just rhetoric. He has hinted at rethinking Germany’s role in NATO, questioning whether the alliance will remain “in its current form” by mid-2025. Analysts say this could mean boosting Europe’s defence capabilities, possibly by supplying Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles—a step Scholz avoided.
Posts on X echoed this sentiment. One user, @Jeff4Malaysia, wrote at 12:48 PST on 23 February: “Germany turns Right and pledges to be ‘independent’ of the US. Early projections say CDU/CSU has secured 29% ahead of AfD with over 20%.” The shift has sparked debate about Germany’s future on the global stage.
The AfD’s Surge: A Wake-Up Call
The AfD’s 21% haul is its best-ever result in a federal election, far surpassing exit poll predictions of 20.8%. The party dominated in eastern Germany, where it polled at 34%, according to ZDF. Leader Alice Weidel hailed the outcome as a sign that “Germans have voted for change.”
“We’ll keep pushing until we’re number one,” Weidel told supporters, though she acknowledged the party’s exclusion from power due to the “firewall” upheld by mainstream parties. The AfD’s platform—anti-immigration, anti-EU, and pro-Russia—resonated with voters frustrated by economic stagnation and recent migrant-related attacks in Magdeburg and Munich.
Reuters reported on 23 February that the AfD’s success sent “shock waves across Europe,” with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer quick to congratulate Merz while stressing unity. Macron tweeted: “In this period of uncertainty, we are united to face the great challenges of our continent.”
Coalition Talks: A Tricky Road Ahead
Despite the CDU/CSU’s win, Merz lacks an outright majority in the 630-seat Bundestag, where 316 seats are needed to govern. With the AfD off the table, he’ll likely turn to the SPD for a two-party “grand coalition”—a setup Germany has seen four times since World War II. Together, the CDU/CSU (208 seats) and SPD (120 seats) would hold a comfortable majority, bolstered by the FDP and BSW’s failure to cross the 5% threshold.
But negotiations won’t be easy. Merz’s rightward shift on immigration clashes with the SPD’s progressive roots, though both parties agree on supporting Ukraine. A three-way coalition with the Greens (11%, 80 seats) is another option, dubbed a “Kenya coalition” for its black-red-green colours, but Merz has mocked Green leader Robert Habeck as a “representative for heat pumps.”
“I want a government by Easter,” Merz said, setting an ambitious timeline. Political observers, however, warn that talks could drag into mid-2025, leaving Scholz as a caretaker chancellor amid economic woes and Trump’s looming trade threats.
What This Means for Germany and Beyond
Germany’s election comes at a pivotal moment. The economy has shrunk for two straight years, and companies like Volkswagen face fierce competition from China. Immigration remains a hot-button issue, with Merz vowing to “close borders” on day one—a promise that won him votes but risks clashing with EU laws.
Globally, Merz’s push for European independence could reshape NATO and EU dynamics. CNN noted on 23 February that his win coincides with “Trump’s upending of the post-World War II order,” raising questions about transatlantic ties. Posts on X, like @jacob_w_palmer’s at 17:42 PST, called Merz’s stance “bold,” predicting a Germany less reliant on U.S. leadership.
Back home, ordinary Germans are watching closely. “I’m glad Merz won, but the AfD’s rise scares me,” said Berlin resident Anna Schmidt. “We need stability, not division.”
South African Perspective: A Parallel to Watch
For South Africans, Germany’s election offers a mirror to our own political shifts. Like the ANC’s struggles with coalition governments, the SPD’s collapse shows how voter trust can erode. The AfD’s gains also echo the rise of fringe parties here, challenging the mainstream. As Germany navigates its future, South Africa too faces questions of economic recovery and global alignment in a turbulent world.
Looking Ahead
As vote counting wrapped up on Monday, 24 February, Merz’s path to the chancellery seems set, barring coalition hiccups. The AfD, though sidelined, will loom large as an opposition force, while the SPD licks its wounds. For now, Germany—and Europe—await Merz’s next move.
“Germany is being governed reliably again,” Merz promised. Whether he can deliver remains the big story of 2025.
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