Free State Poll
A recent free state poll conducted by Central News has garnered the participation of 98,810 people, shedding light on voter sentiment ahead of the crucial 2024 national and provincial elections. With the elections announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa for the 29th of May 2024, the Free State Poll emerges as a crucial tool in gauging the province’s electorate preferences.
The poll, designed to capture the political inclinations across the Free State, offered voters a platform to voice their preference amongst a diverse array of political figures and parties. From the African National Congress (ANC) with Mxolisi Dukwana at the helm, to the Democratic Alliance (DA) represented by Dr Roy Jankielsohn, and including dynamic leaders from the EFF, ActionSA, and independent candidates among others, the poll reflected a broad spectrum of political choice.
Poll Results Unveiled
The results from the poll present an intriguing scenario where the ANC is leading :
- ANC (African National Congress): 41,461 votes, 41.96%
- DA (Democratic Alliance): 16,781 votes, 16.99%.
- EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters): 12,832 votes, 12.98%.
- Independent, Sesing Ramotswabodi (JJ Sesing): 8,884 votes, 8.99%.
- ActionSA: 4,936 votes , 4.99%
- ACM (African Content Movement): 2,961 votes, 2.99%
- MK Party: 2,001 votes , 2.02%
- ACT : 999 votes, 1.01%
- AZAPO (Azanian People’s Organisation): 55 votes, 0.06%.
- AIC (African Independent Congress): 1,995 votes, 2.02%
- Rise Mzansi: 2,074 votes, 2.10%, 2.10%
- PAC (Pan Africanist Congress): 56 votes, 0.06%
- FF Plus (Freedom Front Plus): 3,500 votes, 3.54%
- IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party): 44 votes, 0.04%
- Patriotic Alliance: 78 votes, 0.08%
- ATM (African Transformation Movement): 109 votes, 0.11%
- Forum 4 Service Delivery: 34 votes, 0.03%
- ARISE South Africa: 40 votes, 0.04%
2019 National and Provincial Elections (Free State)
In the 2019 National and Provincial Elections, the main focus was on the National Assembly seats and the provincial legislature seats in the Free State. Here are the results for the Free State Provincial Legislature:
- African National Congress (ANC): The ANC maintained a strong lead with approximately 61.14% of the vote, which was a decline from the 2014 elections when they secured 69.85%.
- Democratic Alliance (DA): The DA was the second-largest party, although it saw a slight decrease in its support, receiving around 17.58% of the vote compared to 16.23% in 2014.
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): The EFF continued to grow in popularity, securing about 12.58% of the vote, up from 8.15% in 2014.
- Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) : The VF Plus also saw an increase in their support, getting about 4.71% of the votes.
- Other parties received a comparatively small percentage of the vote, each accounting for less than 1%.
2021 Local Government Elections (Free State)
In the 2021 Local Government Elections, the focus was on municipal wards, local councils, and district councils across the Free State province. The results showed some shifts in party support:
- African National Congress (ANC) : The ANC remained dominant but experienced a notable drop in support across the Free State, securing less of the vote compared to the provincial elections. Specific percentages might vary by municipality but generally saw a decrease in support across the board.
- Democratic Alliance (DA): The DA maintained its position as the main opposition in most areas but saw varied results across different municipalities. In some areas, their support increased, while in others, it declined.
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): The EFF continued to increase its foothold in local governments across the Free State, gaining more wards and increasing its share of the vote in many municipalities.
- Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus): The VF Plus continued to build on its gains from the national and provincial elections, securing more votes in many areas of the Free State, particularly in predominantly Afrikaans-speaking communities.
Evaluating Shifting Sands
The comparative analysis of the election results from 2019, 2021, and the recent poll results of 2024, underscores a transforming political environment within the Free State. The ANC, though still dominant, appears to be on a descending trajectory in terms of voter support. Conversely, opposition entities like the EFF and VF Plus are on an ascending path, showcasing increased voter confidence.
The DA’s journey reflects a more complex narrative, with the party confronting the challenge of not only maintaining but augmenting its support base amid evolving voter expectations and a competitive political arena.
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