Kgosientsho Ramokgopa
By Lerato Mpembe
Electricity and Energy Minister, Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, has reported a significant improvement in Eskom’s unplanned capability loss factor (UCLF), marking a positive step for South Africa’s electricity supply. This improvement signals a healthier system, and the reduction in the use of costly diesel generation has enabled the country to avoid load shedding for a considerable period. The Minister made this announcement during his energy security update in Pretoria on Monday.
“If you look at what the UCLF recorded over the past seven days, we’ve been averaging at about 10 500 megawatts. This essentially means that 10 500 megawatts of installed capacity was not available due to various reasons, including unit failures and other factors affecting optimal performance. Compared to the same period last year, this is an improvement of about 5 000 megawatts,” Ramokgopa explained.
“This is significant, and that’s why we’ve been able to keep the lights on for a very considerable period,” he added.
Eskom’s Reduced Reliance on Diesel
One of the key outcomes of Eskom’s improved UCLF is the reduced reliance on expensive diesel generation to avoid load shedding. Ramokgopa noted that from 1 April to 17 October 2023, Eskom had spent approximately R18 billion to prevent power cuts, a reduction of R12 billion compared to the same period last year. This drop in expenditure is primarily due to less reliance on Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), which are often used as a last resort to generate power during peak demand periods.
“If you look at the OCGT load factor—the percentage of time that we’re relying on these turbines—last year, it was sitting at about 8.95%, and this year, it has decreased to 4.59%,” the Minister revealed.
The improvement in Eskom’s system, according to Ramokgopa, indicates a more stable and efficient operation, which should ultimately benefit the end consumer by lowering electricity costs and reducing the frequency of power outages.
208 Days Without Load Shedding
Ramokgopa acknowledged that South Africa has gone 208 days without load shedding—a milestone for a country that has struggled with rolling blackouts for years. However, the Minister was quick to caution against celebrating this achievement, framing it as an anomaly rather than the standard.
“The standard should be that there is no load shedding at all,” Ramokgopa stated. “We should also not rely on expensive fuel sources to keep the lights on. This is not an achievement but a step in the right direction. The real achievement will be when there’s no load shedding, and we can use a cheaper form of generation to power the country.”
Ramokgopa’s remarks reflect the government’s ongoing effort to transition South Africa’s energy system away from costly emergency solutions and toward more sustainable and affordable energy sources.
The Role of Independent Power Producers (IPPs)
Central to South Africa’s strategy for achieving a more reliable and affordable energy supply is the Independent Power Producer (IPP) programme, which has been a cornerstone of the country’s renewable energy efforts since its inception in 2011. According to Ramokgopa, the IPP programme has procured a total of 15 432 megawatts of renewable energy, with 8 231 megawatts currently under evaluation and an additional 1 897 megawatts under construction.
The Minister stressed that the government’s seventh administration is committed to aggressively expanding the IPP programme, with reforms aimed at improving the programme’s efficiency and structure.
“These renewable energy projects are largely concentrated in the Western Cape, Northern Cape, and Eastern Cape, where we have optimal renewable energy resources,” Ramokgopa explained. He also highlighted the socio-economic benefits of these projects, noting that they have created 85 800 job opportunities and significantly contributed to local economies.
Furthermore, Ramokgopa revealed that the IPP programme has attracted substantial market confidence, with international and domestic investments amounting to R272 billion. The focus, he said, is on making electricity generation more affordable and competitive, thus reducing the country’s reliance on expensive, carbon-intensive fuel sources.
Progress on Reducing the Cost of Electricity
A key objective of the Ministry of Electricity and Energy is to reduce the cost of electricity in South Africa. Ramokgopa outlined several measures the government is implementing to achieve this goal, including expanding renewable energy generation, improving Eskom’s operational efficiency, and reducing the reliance on diesel and other costly fuel sources.
“The focal point of the Ministry is to ensure that we can reduce the cost of electricity in the country, make businesses competitive, and sustain power in households,” he stated.
By reducing the cost of energy, the government hopes to improve the competitiveness of South African businesses, which are often burdened by high electricity prices, and ensure that households have access to reliable and affordable power.
Load Shedding: The Path Ahead
Despite the improvements in Eskom’s UCLF and the reduced reliance on OCGTs, South Africa remains vulnerable to load shedding, particularly during times of peak demand or when significant units are taken offline for maintenance. The Minister acknowledged that while the country has enjoyed 208 days without power cuts, it is critical to remain vigilant and continue working toward a long-term solution.
“The real challenge is ensuring that these improvements are sustained over the long term,” Ramokgopa said. “We need to continue investing in infrastructure, expanding our renewable energy capacity, and improving the efficiency of Eskom’s operations.”
He also stressed the importance of the IPP programme in reducing the country’s dependency on Eskom for electricity generation. “The Independent Power Producer programme will play a vital role in helping us diversify our energy mix and reduce the burden on Eskom.”
Public and Market Reaction
The public’s response to Ramokgopa’s briefing has been generally positive, with many South Africans expressing relief that the country is experiencing fewer power cuts. Social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) have seen discussions about the Minister’s comments, with users praising the government’s efforts to improve Eskom’s operations and reduce reliance on diesel.
Market analysts have also responded favourably to the news, with some suggesting that the improvements in Eskom’s performance could have a positive impact on South Africa’s economic growth. Lower electricity costs, combined with fewer disruptions from load shedding, could help boost productivity in key sectors like manufacturing, mining, and agriculture.
However, some analysts have cautioned that the government still faces significant challenges in stabilising the country’s electricity supply. “While these improvements are encouraging, South Africa’s electricity system is still fragile,” said one energy expert. “There is still a lot of work to be done to ensure that the system is resilient enough to withstand future shocks.”
Renewable Energy and Job Creation
The government’s focus on renewable energy through the IPP programme has not only helped to reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels but has also created tens of thousands of jobs. The 85 800 jobs generated by the programme have provided a much-needed boost to local economies, particularly in rural areas where many of the renewable energy projects are located.
Ramokgopa highlighted the socio-economic benefits of the renewable energy projects, noting that they are not just about generating electricity but also about contributing to broader development goals. “These projects are helping to transform local communities, providing jobs and stimulating economic growth in areas that have historically been underserved.”
Challenges and Future Outlook
While the progress made by Eskom and the government’s renewable energy efforts are notable, significant challenges remain. South Africa’s energy infrastructure is ageing, and many of the country’s coal-fired power stations are nearing the end of their operational lives. The transition to renewable energy, while essential for reducing carbon emissions and improving energy security, will require substantial investment in new infrastructure.
The government is also under pressure to address the socio-political challenges associated with the energy transition. Coal mining remains a critical source of employment in many parts of South Africa, and the shift away from coal towards renewables could result in job losses in these areas. Ramokgopa acknowledged the need for a just transition that ensures that workers in the coal industry are not left behind.
“We are committed to ensuring that the transition to renewable energy is inclusive and that it benefits all South Africans,” Ramokgopa said. “This is why we are focusing on job creation and local economic development as part of the IPP programme.”
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