Eskom
By Thabo Mosia
Johannesburg – Eskom has marked four consecutive months without loadshedding, a record 128 days of uninterrupted power supply since 26 March 2024. This period includes 94 days of continuous power supply throughout the winter season, a critical time for energy demand in South Africa.
Since the beginning of Eskom’s current financial year on 1 April 2024, there has been no loadshedding. The last time South Africa experienced such a prolonged suspension of loadshedding was over four years ago, between 16 March 2020 and 9 July 2020, when loadshedding was suspended for 116 days.
Key Factors Behind the Suspension
Eskom has maintained an impressive average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 71% over the past seven days. The EAF has surpassed 70% on numerous occasions in the last two weeks, equating to approximately 33,180 MW of available generation capacity. This marks a substantial improvement from April 2023, when the average daily available generation capacity was around 23,700 MW.
The Generation Recovery Plan has been instrumental in delivering efficiencies for Eskom, achieving an approximate R9.37 billion reduction in Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) diesel expenditure from 1 April 2024 to 25 July 2024, compared to the same period last year.
Six power stations – Kusile, Lethabo, Majuba, Tutuka, Matla, and Medupi – have recorded an EAF greater than 70%. Additionally, three more power stations achieved an EAF above 60%, with five of these stations being part of the priority list in the recovery plan.
Operational Efficiency and Future Outlook
Eskom’s operational efficiency continues to exceed winter assumptions, with current unplanned outages averaging between 9,800 MW and 12,400 MW since 1 April 2024, the start of Eskom’s Financial Year 2025. As of today, the figure has reduced to 9,866 MW, significantly lower than the winter 2024 forecast.
The winter forecast, published on 26 April 2024, anticipated a likely scenario of unplanned outages at 15,500 MW and loadshedding limited to Stage 2. This remains in force.
Reduction in Unplanned Outages
Key performance highlights include a significant reduction in unplanned outages:
• The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) continues to trend downward, standing at 26.13% for the financial year to date (1 April 2024 to 1 August 2024), improving from 34.91% in the corresponding period last year.
• This reduction represents an 8.8% improvement compared to the same period last year.
• The unplanned outages of generation units averaged a lower 9,920 MW during the past seven days, compared to approximately 16,393 MW in the corresponding week last year.Sustained Energy Availability Factor Improvement
The year-to-date EAF (1 April 2024 to 1 August 2024) has increased to 63.03%, a significant improvement of 8% compared to the same period last year when the EAF was 55.15%. The weekly EAF has moved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 70.67% from 26 July to 1 August 2024, a significant improvement of about 13.67%.
Strategic Use of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs)
Eskom’s strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks from 17:00 to 22:00.
• Diesel consumption remains significantly below projected figures for this winter and is considerably lower than the past two years from 1 April 2024 to 1 August 2024.
• Expenditure on OCGTs between 1 April and 1 August 2024 was R3.39 billion, generating 495.30 GWh, approximately 73% less than the R12.76 billion spent last year over the same period for 2,124.68 GWh.
• The OCGT load factor for 1 April to 1 August 2024 was 1.25%, significantly lower than last year’s figure of 21.08% over the same period.Save Your Transformer and Save Lives Campaign
While loadshedding remains suspended, Eskom continues to face network overloading issues in certain local areas. These problems stem from illegal connections, vandalism, meter tampering, unauthorised network operations, theft of network equipment, and purchasing electricity from unlicensed vendors.
Eskom urges the public to avoid illegal connections as they can negatively impact the entire local community. It is essential for customers to purchase electricity only from authorised vendors.
Looking Ahead
Eskom’s projected evening peak demand for today, Friday, 2 August 2024, is 29,139 MW. A total of about 3,410 MW of generating capacity is scheduled to return to service by Monday, 5 August 2024.
Eskom will provide an update next Friday, 9 August 2024, or promptly communicate any significant changes as soon as they occur.
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