Eskom
By Mpho Moloi
Eskom says its generation fleet is showing ongoing momentum with more than half of coal-fired power stations operating with an Energy Availability Factor (EAF) exceeding 70%, as the power utility marks a key milestone in keeping the lights on through winter without widespread blackouts. With unplanned outages hitting a historic low and plans to bring back thousands of megawatts to the grid soon, South Africa’s electricity supply looks set for continued stability as the country pushes through the last stretch of the cold season.
Strong Gains in Coal-Fired Station Performance
Eskom runs 14 coal-fired power stations that form the backbone of the country’s electricity supply. Right now, eight of these are running at an EAF of 70% or higher, which means they are available and ready to produce power most of the time. Three stations stand out with top-notch results, each clocking an EAF above 90%, and one even hitting 91.1%. This is a big step up from earlier struggles, where breakdowns and poor upkeep often left units offline.
The overall EAF for the fleet has climbed to around 71% in recent weeks, not counting extra input from new units like Kusile Unit 6, which adds 720MW to the mix. Year-to-date, the EAF sits at 59.42%, showing steady progress from the dips seen in past years. For example, back in the first few months of 2025, it hovered around 57%, but focused fixes on key plants have turned things around.
“The power system continues to operate reliably, supported by an improved Energy Availability Factor, which reflects progress in plant performance and enables Eskom to meet winter electricity demand effectively.
“When system constraints do arise, they are managed through the targeted use of emergency reserves during morning and evening peak periods,” the power utility said.
These improvements come from Eskom’s recovery plan, which ramps up planned maintenance during quieter times and tackles root causes like boiler tube leaks and ageing parts. In the week of 25 to 31 July 2025, planned outages averaged 4,745MW, a level that keeps the system balanced without risking big failures. This has helped cut down on surprise breakdowns, giving homes and businesses a more dependable supply.
Historic Low in Unplanned Outages
One of the biggest wins is the drop in unplanned outages, which are the sudden faults that force units offline and can trigger blackouts. As of 1 August 2025, these stood at 8,525MW – the lowest in recent times, just edging out the 8,258MW low from 28 October 2024. Available generation capacity is now at 30,882MW, enough to cover daily needs even during busy hours.
From April to July 2025, the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) – a measure of how much capacity is lost to these unexpected issues – fell to 28.58%. That is a small but steady drop of about 0.4% from the week before, though it is still 2.3% higher than the 26.28% seen over the same months last year. By Thursday last week, the UCLF had dipped below 20% to 19.94%, a clear sign of better upkeep and quicker fixes.
“As of [Thursday], the UCLF had dropped below the 20% mark, reaching 19.94%, signalling a significant and consistent improvement in generation performance,” Eskom noted.
This low level of faults has saved money too, with less need for pricey diesel to run backup generators. In the past, high outages meant burning through billions in fuel, but now the focus is on core fixes to keep coal plants humming.
No Load Shedding Since Mid-May Milestone
South Africa has gone without load shedding since 15 May 2025, a stretch of over two months that has brought relief to everyone from factory owners to families cooking dinner. Overall, from April to the end of July 2025, blackouts added up to just 26 hours – a far cry from the hundreds of days lost in previous years.
“With 30 days of Eskom’s winter outlook period still remaining, the system remains well-positioned to maintain stability and meet demand effectively,” the utility said.
This break from rolling cuts has boosted the economy, letting businesses run smoothly and cutting costs from generators and lost work. It also lines up well as South Africa gears up to host the G20 summit later this year, where steady power will help show the country in a good light.
Winter Outlook Holds Firm with Capacity Boost Ahead
Eskom’s winter plan, rolled out on 5 May 2025 and covering up to 31 August, is still on track. It says no blackouts are needed if unplanned faults stay under 13,000MW. Even if they climb to 15,000MW, any shedding would cap at 21 days over the 153-day period, and only up to Stage 2.
“The Winter Outlook…covering the period ending 31 August 2025, remains valid. It indicates that load shedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13 000MW. If outages rise to 15 000MW, load shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to Stage 2,” Eskom said.
To keep things steady, Eskom aims to add back 3,075MW to the grid in the coming week. This includes bringing units online after routine checks, which should ease any tight spots during peaks. Past weeks have seen similar returns, like 3,960MW in late July and 3,330MW in mid-July, helping hold the line against demand spikes.
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