Eskom
By Lerato Mpembe
Eskom eyes grid stability with additional 2 120MW return to service, as the power utility confirms that loadshedding remains suspended due to a stable power system, improved fleet reliability, and a significant drop in unplanned outages by 6.6% year-on-year.
On Friday, 21 March 2025, Eskom issued Power Alert 1, announcing that loadshedding would remain suspended owing to a stable generation environment supported by strategic use of emergency reserves and intensified planned maintenance. This welcome development comes at a critical time, with the country preparing for increased winter demand.
The utility stated that it remains on track to return a further “2 120MW to service over this long weekend” to reinforce grid stability. This move forms part of Eskom’s broader recovery plan to ensure consistent electricity supply while managing its aging infrastructure and environmental obligations.
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Loadshedding Suspended: A Breakthrough in Grid Recovery
Eskom confirmed that the national grid has stayed “constrained but stable,” enabling the suspension of loadshedding for 342 days since April 2024. This contrasts sharply with only 32 suspension days during the same period in the previous year. The difference marks a notable shift in Eskom’s operational reliability, driven by a suite of recovery initiatives and better fleet performance.
One of the biggest contributing factors has been the strategic deployment of emergency generation reserves. These include diesel-powered open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs), which, while costly, have been instrumental in filling generation gaps during high-demand periods.
According to Eskom, “the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), or unplanned outages,” has significantly improved from 32.39% in March 2024 to 25.77% this year, translating to a 6.6% year-on-year improvement. The current unplanned outages are measured at 13 733MW, with total generation capacity at 27 106MW—well above the peak demand forecast of 25 652MW.
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Strategic Maintenance and System Readiness
Eskom continues to ramp up its efforts in planned maintenance, which currently stands at “6 793MW.” The utility views this as critical to improving the reliability of its aging generation fleet ahead of the anticipated high winter demand.
The utility’s proactive maintenance strategy has contributed to the improvement of the “Planned Capacity Loss Factor,” now sitting at 12.64%, up from 12.00% year-on-year. This increase reflects more intensive scheduled maintenance work being carried out to address long-term issues across key stations like Medupi, Kendal, Kusile, and Matla.
The weekly “Energy Availability Factor (EAF)”—a key measure of operational efficiency—has also improved. From 17 to 20 March 2025, EAF rose to 58.34%, up from 57.0% at the start of the financial year. Eskom reports that the year-to-date EAF stands at 60.98%, representing a 6.5% improvement compared to last year’s 54.53%.
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Cost Reductions and Diesel Savings Boost Financial Health
One of Eskom’s more promising revelations lies in its diesel usage. Year-to-date diesel savings have reached “R16.89 billion,” reflecting a more than 50% cut in comparison to the R32.61 billion spent during the same period last year. These savings have been achieved by reducing the reliance on expensive OCGT fuel, largely due to improved generation reliability.
Nonetheless, Eskom spent “R15.72 billion on fuel for the OCGT fleet” in the current financial year, generating 2 645.43GWh—still substantially lower than the 5 047.93GWh generated in the previous year.
While the cost of OCGTs remains high, Eskom’s targeted usage has brought about more efficient returns. For the week of 14 to 21 March 2025, the OCGT load factor was recorded at 23.62%, up from 19.37% the previous year. However, the year-to-date OCGT load factor now stands at 9.12%, significantly down from 17.35% last year, indicating a more strategic and cost-effective approach to their deployment.
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Public Safety and Illegal Connections
While Eskom maintains the suspension of loadshedding, it also continues its efforts to protect infrastructure from illegal connections and theft. As part of its “‘Save Your Transformers, Save Lives’ campaign,” Eskom urges communities to avoid illegal electricity connections and to report suspicious activity.
Consumers are advised to buy electricity only from Eskom-accredited vendors. The public can report illegal activities to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722 or via WhatsApp at 081 333 3323.
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Expert Insights and Industry Response
Energy experts and analysts have responded positively to Eskom’s progress, with many viewing the improved operational metrics as a sign of greater internal control and maintenance discipline.
Chris Yelland, a well-known energy analyst, commented in a News24 interview that Eskom’s diesel spending cuts and improved UCLF show a “shift in operational culture,” though he warned that sustained performance will depend heavily on winter readiness and stable coal supply.
A March 2025 report by IOL noted that the improvements were partly due to the lower-than-expected demand in early 2025, as well as improved performance at key power stations such as Tutuka and Lethabo. These stations had previously contributed significantly to unplanned breakdowns but are now showing more consistency.
Additionally, Eskom continues to review its “Summer Outlook from 1 September 2024 to 31 March 2025,” reaffirming its focus on stabilising supply during both off-peak and high-demand periods.
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Future Outlook: Winter Preparedness and Sustainability
Looking ahead, Eskom’s return of the “2 120MW” to service is part of a wider strategy to enhance capacity and resilience. This is essential as the grid moves into the winter season, when demand typically spikes due to heating requirements and increased residential consumption.
The utility has signalled that planned maintenance will continue “until early April,” targeting long-term sustainability over short-term supply fixes. This approach reflects Eskom’s ongoing shift from reactive to proactive operations management.
Furthermore, year-to-date electricity availability stands at “~96%,” a significant jump from last year’s ~87%, demonstrating consistent progress. Eskom is aiming to maintain this momentum by ensuring that both generation and transmission components of the grid remain optimised.
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Loadshedding Risk Not Yet Eliminated
Despite the positive outlook, Eskom has cautioned that the system remains “constrained,” meaning that any significant generation loss or spike in demand could trigger the return of loadshedding. The use of emergency reserves—while successful—cannot replace the need for a diversified and modernised generation fleet.
To that end, Eskom continues to lobby government and independent power producers (IPPs) to speed up the rollout of renewable and embedded generation options. These alternatives are seen as vital to reducing pressure on Eskom’s coal-dominated fleet, which still accounts for over 80% of South Africa’s energy mix.
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Political and Public Reception
Politically, Eskom’s improved performance has received both praise and scepticism. While Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa welcomed the development, he reiterated the need for vigilance, saying in a recent briefing, “Our recovery is on track, but the margin for error remains narrow.”
Public sentiment, as reflected on platforms like X (formerly Twitter), is cautiously optimistic. Some users expressed relief over the suspension of loadshedding, while others questioned whether the reprieve would last beyond Easter weekend.
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