Eskom On Loadshedding
South Africans may have to prepare for Stage 2 loadshedding this coming winter, as Eskom anticipates maintaining power cuts at this level. The announcement was made during a media briefing on the state of the system and outlook for the winter period, with Eskom’s Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane sharing insights at Megawatt Park last Friday.
Marokane revealed that the forecast for winter 2024 is based on the expectation of the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) reaching 14 000MW, a slight improvement from the 15 000MW anticipated last winter. The UCLF measures the rate at which power generating units fail and underperform.
“For winter 2024… the likely scenario from our assumptions is that load shedding will be maintained within Stage 2 at most. In the extreme case where the unreliability increases, that component may go occasionally [to] Stage 5 but we really think that on the basis of what we see, the performance of the fleet, load shedding will stay within Stage 2,” Marokane optimistically stated.
He further explained that a 1,000MW decrease in the baseline unreliability capacity is a significant factor in managing the severity of load shedding. “What is really important as we go into this season’s forecast is that the base level for UCLF number is lower by a 1000MW. When you understand the capacity that we have, it does not look as a big number but when you actually understand the implications in terms of the levels of load shedding, to be able to bank that capacity is an important aspect,” he shared.
Eskom has been focusing on reducing the UCLF, with Marokane highlighting a 9% improvement in unplanned losses since last winter. This success is attributed to the prioritisation of targeted stations and the early return of four units at the Kusile Power Station, bringing losses down to around 14.2GW. The goal for this financial year is to keep this figure below 14GW.
“We also have the benefit of the early return of the four Kusile [Power Station] units that were out. The losses are averaging around 14.2GW. Our focus on targets in this financial year is to keep this below 14GW. This is where the first capacity release is coming from. The decline… is not as fast as we want to [and] our focal point this year is to deal with six or seven key areas that cause unreliability and once we tackle them we should be able to see ourselves comfortably at lower levels than this,” Marokane elaborated.
The Eskom CEO insists that reducing losses at power stations is a top priority this winter. Moreover, he made a call to South Africans to use electricity wisely and sparingly during the colder months.
“Over the winter period, work continues and we are targeting to reduce the unplanned losses by a further 1.7GW. This will be made up of 1.3GW from partial load loss reduction but also…demand side management initiatives are also underway. Our ability to beat load shedding this winter still depends on our collective collaboration and to this extent, we’ll be launching the energy saving campaign this May asking all of us to play our part in this regard,” Marokane concluded.
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