By Mpho Moloi
By-elections held on 11 September 2024 across several wards in the Free State have delivered a resounding victory for the Democratic Alliance (DA), as they secured five key wards in Matjhabeng and Mangaung municipalities. The ANC, once dominant in the province, failed to win any of these highly contested wards, marking a significant shift in the local political landscape.
This electoral outcome raises questions about the ANC’s grip on traditional strongholds as the DA continues to build momentum ahead of the 2024 national elections. The by-elections, which saw a mix of urban and semi-urban wards, were seen as a bellwether for broader national trends, particularly in the Free State, where the ANC has faced increasing challenges in recent years.
Election Results Breakdown
The wards contested included key areas within the Matjhabeng and Mangaung municipalities. The DA’s victories in these wards are a continuation of their steady performance in the 2021 local government elections, where they gained ground in many parts of the province. The 2024 by-elections now reinforce the notion that the DA’s strategies have resonated with voters who are seeking change, particularly in service delivery.
The following are the key wards and results from the by-elections:
• Matjhabeng Ward 35: Igor Stefan Scheurkogel (DA) won with 45.85% of the vote, a slight decline from the 46.02% the DA secured in the 2021 elections. However, voter turnout increased from 41.01% to 48.14% .
• Mangaung Ward 18: David Mark Campbell McKay (DA) emerged victorious with a strong 65.62% of the vote, showing a clear improvement over the DA’s 2021 performance where Gregory Owen Van Noord garnered 85.23% of the vote .
• Mangaung Ward 20: Werner Pretorius (DA) captured 75.13% of the vote, further solidifying the DA’s grip in this area, building on Corize Van Rensburg’s overwhelming 98.40% win in 2021 .
• Mangaung Ward 22: The DA’s Dulandi Leech triumphed with 74.24%, continuing their dominance in this ward which saw Jan-Hendrik Cronje winning 97.36% in 2021 .
• Mangaung Ward 25: Francois Rossouw Botes (DA) maintained the party’s stronghold with 79.82% of the vote. Paul Maré Kotzé previously won this ward with 97.78% in 2021 .Declining ANC Influence in the Free State
The ANC’s failure to secure any of the contested wards is indicative of their waning influence in the Free State, a province that has historically been a key stronghold. This decline can be attributed to various factors, including growing dissatisfaction with service delivery, allegations of corruption, and internal party divisions.
Looking at the 2021 local government elections, the ANC did perform better in some of these wards, but their decline in 2024 signals a major shift. In Matjhabeng and Mangaung, key metropolitan areas, the ANC’s inability to mount a significant challenge in the by-elections shows that they have lost touch with their voter base in these municipalities.
In the 2021 elections, the ANC still managed to maintain a foothold in some wards, but their vote percentages were already on a downward trajectory. The 2024 by-election results, however, represent a culmination of voter frustration with the party’s internal challenges and failure to deliver on its promises.
DA’s Momentum and 2024 National Elections
With the national elections looming in 2024, the DA’s victory in these Free State by-elections serves as a critical boost to their campaign. The DA has been working hard to appeal to disillusioned ANC voters, focusing on issues such as governance, service delivery, and anti-corruption measures. These themes have resonated in the Free State, where communities have long struggled with basic services like water, sanitation, and housing.
Commenting on the victory, DA leader John Steenhuisen stated, “The results of these by-elections show that South Africans are ready for change. The DA is committed to providing that change, and we will continue to fight for every community across South Africa.”
Wayne Sussman’s Analysis on X
Renowned election analyst Wayne Sussman weighed in on the Free State by-election results on X, noting that the DA’s gains in Matjhabeng and Mangaung reflect broader national trends. “The DA’s performance in Matjhabeng and Mangaung is a continuation of the momentum they have built since the 2021 local elections. The ANC’s inability to retain even one of the wards signals that their challenges are far from over.”
Sussman also highlighted that the voter turnout was slightly higher in these by-elections compared to the 2021 elections, which shows that the electorate is engaged and looking for alternatives .
2021 Local Government Elections vs 2024 By-Elections
A comparison between the 2021 local government elections and the 2024 by-elections reveals interesting insights into voter behavior and party performance in the Free State.
In 2021, the ANC was still competitive in some areas of Mangaung and Matjhabeng, though they were already facing challenges. The DA, on the other hand, was steadily building support, which they have now capitalized on in the 2024 by-elections.
In Matjhabeng, the ANC’s internal problems, coupled with voter dissatisfaction over service delivery, allowed the DA to make significant inroads. Mangaung has been particularly hard-hit by service delivery issues, which has pushed voters away from the ANC and towards the DA.
The DA’s gains can also be seen in the broader context of their national campaign, which has focused on governance and service delivery. They have made these issues central to their message, and it appears to have resonated with voters in the Free State.
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