CSIR on 2024 National and Provincial Elections
The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has announced its active involvement in the forthcoming National and Provincial Elections set for 29 May 2024. The CSIR will once again make use of its sophisticated election prediction model, which has been a cornerstone in South African elections since its debut in the 1999 General Elections.
This election prediction model, renowned for its precision, hinges on two fundamental principles: the evaluation of voter behaviour patterns and the sequential announcement of voting results on Election Day. “When combined, these two principles enable the team to group voters or voting districts based on their past voting behaviour, utilising a statistical clustering method,” stated CSIR officials.
During previous elections, the model has consistently demonstrated high accuracy at a national level, particularly when about 5% of the voting results have been counted. As more voting districts are tallied, the predictions become increasingly stable and precise.
Dr. Thulani Dlamini, Chief Executive Officer of CSIR, emphasised that the model is not a polling system but rather a sophisticated tool that employs statistical and mathematical techniques to forecast election outcomes. “It showcases how statistical clustering and some mathematical algorithms can achieve good predictions from a small sample of results. The election prediction model operates based on reducing the bias resulting from the ‘non-randomness’ of the incoming results that arise from the order in which the results are received,” explained Dr. Dlamini.
One of the remarkable features of this model is its adaptability. Besides election predictions, the model’s predictive capabilities make it suitable for various other forms of predictive analysis and forecasting. With this tool, CSIR also stands ready to assist other countries that might need a similar mechanism to enhance election transparency and engagement.
Dr. Dlamini noted, “The organisation possesses robust capabilities in mathematics and statistics, which are applied to deliver precise results and can be customised for various forms of predictive analysis and forecasting.”
The CSIR, a key entity under the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation, is one of Africa’s premier scientific and technology research institutions. Its mission involves directed, multidisciplinary research and technological innovation aimed at improving the quality of life for all South Africans.
_______________________________________
Central News Weekly Edition 054: Download the latest special edition of Central News Print and Digital Newspaper. Top Story : “National Results Operation Centre (ROC) for the 2024 National Elections Unveiled in Midrand”.
Download Here:
Read all our publications on magzter:
https://www.magzter.com/ZA/Central-News-Pty-Ltd/Central-News/Newspaper/All-Issues
________________________
Central News also offers Sponsored Editorial Content, Podcasts , Radio / Social Media Simulcast, Video Production , Live Streaming Services, Press Conferences, and Paid Interviews (Video/Audio) etc.
We guarantee exceptional exposure, reach, and engagement, with an excellent return on investment.
Advertisement:
To place your advert on our platforms (Print Newspaper or Digital Platforms) : Please email : sales@centralnews.co.za
For Business Related:
business@centralnews.co.za
Newsroom:
Send your Stories / Media Statements To: newsroom@centralnews.co.za
General Info:
info@centralnews.co.za
Office Administrator:
admin@centralnews.co.za
Whatsapp / Call: 081 495 5487
Website: https://www.centralnews.co.za
Social Media Platforms (@centralnewsza) : Linkedin, Facebook, Tiktok, Twitter, Instagram, Youtube
#centralnewsza