Warn of Ongoing Uncertainty
By Thabo Mosia
Johannesburg –
South African exporters have welcomed the US House of Representatives’ vote to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act for three years, but they warn that the country still faces continued near-term uncertainty.
The bill, passed on 12 January 2026 with a strong bipartisan majority of 340 to 54, pushes the programme’s expiry from September 2025 to December 2028, offering temporary relief for duty-free access to the US market.
This short-term fix buys time for deeper reforms, yet concerns linger over South Africa’s eligibility amid geopolitical tensions and the need for a longer-term solution.
The extension provides a lifeline for African economies, including South Africa, which has benefited from AGOA since its start in 2000.
However, business leaders stress that without a full renewal and clear rules, planning for exports remains tricky, especially as the Senate must still approve the bill before it becomes law.
What the AGOA Extension Means for South Africa
The African Growth and Opportunity Act allows eligible sub-Saharan African countries to send over 1,800 products to the US without paying duties, on top of another 5,000 items under general trade rules.
For South Africa, this has boosted exports in sectors like automobiles, textiles, agriculture, and metals, creating jobs and supporting growth.
In recent years, the country has shipped goods worth billions through AGOA, helping factories in places like KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape stay busy.
The House bill not only extends AGOA but also keeps customs fees in place until 2031, which helps fund the programme.
It aims to strengthen US ties with Africa, countering influence from countries like China and Russia by promoting trade over aid.
For South African farmers exporting fruits or winemakers sending bottles to American shelves, this means continued access without extra costs, at least for now.
Exporters like those in the citrus industry have breathed a sigh of relief, as the extension avoids immediate disruptions.
One fruit grower shared how AGOA has helped small farms reach big markets, saying it keeps families employed and communities thriving.
Yet, the three-year timeline falls short of the stability businesses crave, leaving room for worry about what comes next.
Warnings of Ongoing Uncertainty
While the vote is a positive step, South African exporters highlight the risks ahead. The short extension creates a cliff-edge scenario, where uncertainty could return in 2028 without a permanent fix.
Geopolitical issues add to the mix, with some US lawmakers questioning South Africa’s foreign policy stances, such as its ties with certain global powers and positions on international conflicts.
These could threaten eligibility reviews, as AGOA requires countries to meet standards on human rights, rule of law, and economic reforms.
Business groups point out that trade tensions, like past disputes over chicken imports or metal tariffs, show how fragile these deals can be.
The uncertainty makes it hard for companies to invest in new equipment or hire more workers, fearing sudden changes.
One manufacturer explained that without long-term certainty, planning exports feels like gambling, especially with rising global shipping costs and competition from other African nations.
The bill’s passage in the House came after calls from both Republicans and Democrats to protect US interests in Africa, including access to critical minerals needed for tech and green energy.
For South Africa, rich in resources like platinum and manganese, this could open doors, but only if relations stay smooth.
Broader Impacts on African Trade
The extension covers 32 eligible African countries, promoting economic growth through trade rather than handouts.
It has created jobs across the continent, from Ethiopian garment factories to Kenyan flower farms, and encouraged reforms like better labour laws.
In Haiti, a similar programme called HOPE/HELP gets extended too, aiding stability in the region.
However, critics argue AGOA needs updates to address modern challenges, like digital trade and climate goals.
The three-year window allows time for talks on a revamped version, but delays could hurt smaller economies reliant on these preferences.
South Africa’s role as a major beneficiary means it has a voice in pushing for fair changes that benefit all.
Looking Ahead: Calls for Stability and Reform
Exporters urge the US Senate to act quickly on the bill, hoping for President Trump’s signature soon.
In the meantime, they call on South African leaders to strengthen ties with Washington, ensuring compliance with AGOA rules to avoid exclusion risks.
Business chambers suggest diversifying markets to reduce dependence on any one trade deal.
For everyday South Africans, AGOA’s extension means steadier jobs in export industries, from car assembly lines to fruit packing plants.
It supports families and communities, but the warnings of uncertainty remind everyone that long-term planning is key.
As talks continue, the hope is for a stable, reformed AGOA that drives growth for years to come.
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